A Stochastic Diffusion Process-based Multi-Level Monte Carlo for Predictive Reliability Assessment of Distribution System

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Manohar P.
Dr. Chandrasekhar Reddy Atla


Reliability assessment of electrical distribution systems is an important criterion to determine system performance in terms of interruptions. Probabilistic assessment methods are usually used in reliability analysis to deal with uncertainties. These techniques require a longer execution time in order to account for uncertainty. Multi-Level Monte Carlo (MLMC) is an advanced Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approach to improve accuracy and reduce the execution time. This paper provides a systematic approach to model the static and dynamic uncertainties of Time to Failure (TTF) and Time to Repair (TTR) of power distribution components using a Stochastic Diffusion Process. Further, the Stochastic Diffusion Process is integrated into MLMC to estimate the impacts of uncertainties on reliability indices. The Euler Maruyama path discretization applied to evaluate the solution of the Stochastic Diffusion Process. The proposed Stochastic Diffusion Process-based MLMC method is integrated into a systematic failure identification technique to evaluate the distribution system reliability. The proposed method is validated with analytical and Sequential MCS methods for IEEE Roy Billinton Test Systems. Finally, the numerical results show the accuracy and fast convergence rates to handle uncertainties compared to Sequential MCS method.


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Author Biographies

Manohar P., VTU Research Centre, India

Ph.D. Research Scholar

Department of Power Systems

VTU Research Centre, Power Research and Development Consultants Private Limited

Bengaluru - 560086



Dr. Chandrasekhar Reddy Atla, Power Research and Development Consultants Private Limited, India

Deputy General Manager

Power System Solutions

Power Research and Development Consultants Private Limited

Bengaluru - 560086




Chandrasekhar Reddy Atla received his B.Tech. degree from Sri Venkateswara University, Tirupati, India in 2003, M.Tech. degree from National Institute of Technology Karnataka, India in 2008 and Ph.D. degree in Electrical Engineering from Visvesvaraya Technological University, Karnataka, India in 2017.

From 2003 to 2006, he was an Assistant Professor in EEE Dept., K. L. University, AP. Since 2008, he is with the Power System Solutions, Power Research and Development Consultants Private Limited, Bengaluru.  His research interests include Power System Reliability, Electric Vehicles and its impacts on grid, Battery Energy Storage System and its services to grid, Power system operation, Power system planning, Large scale renewable integration and its impacts, Energy Management Systems, Hydro Thermal Coordination, Wind, Solar and Load Forecasting studies.